Modelling downloads to NFTs for Guild of Guardians

Leaky funnel

Two weeks on from its app stores launch, I’m still trying to get my head around Guild of Guardians.

It’s not showing up in terms of any onchain data on the Immutable zkEVM blockchain that I can see, but there are some visible metrics. For example, its Google Play page now lists “100k+ downloads”, up from 50k+ at launch. The next range will be 500k+.

Which got me thinking about running a very basic model of how downloads could convert into actual onchain activity in terms of:

• downloads > Passport wallet sign-ups > IAP buyers > NFT holders

Throw into the mix some broad engagement estimates and three different scenarios, and it becomes pretty clear that it’s going take either millions of downloads and/or a very committed educational push to get tens of thousands of players showing up as onchain wallets.

Interestingly, these models somewhat chime with the data from NFL Rivals, which has done around

• 4 million app store downloads,

• has 150,000 NFT-holding-wallets (3.8%),

• but with only 35,000 wallets (0.9%) that have directly bought NFTs, rather than minting them using IAPs.

(N.B. NFL Rivals’ conversion rate is likely much higher than that of Guild of Guardians because Mythical Games creates a wallet for every account without users having to sign up via email as the Passport wallet requires.)

Finally, at the other end of the funnel, I had a quick look at what NFT trading Guild of Guardians is generating from the core crypto gaming crowd in terms of the number of NFTs traded daily.

Since launch on 15th May, there have been roughly 2,000 NFTs traded daily, split 40% between rare NFTs ($3 floor) and epic NFTs ($5 floor), but with the percentage of legendary NFTs ($20 floor) rising steadily to around 20%.

As previously stated, I don’t think (m)any web2 players will have transitioned from downloading and playing Guild of Guardians to trading NFTs on a third party marketplace.

That will take months but it’s something I’d be keeping an eye on. It will also be interesting to see the dynamics around the legendary NFTs, which are what players who want to be competitive will have to acquire at scale.

---

Sponsored by Hiro Capital: investing 📈 in the future 🔮 of gaming 🎮

---

Calendar

• Axie Homeland cooking event ends — 5th June

• Fableborne’s playtest starts for NFT holders — 5th June

• Decentraland Game Jam starts — 26th June

• Space-based MMOG Influence launches — 27th June

Funding news

• South Korean developer Supervillain Labs has announced a $4.5 million seed round, filled with local interest. South Korea publisher Neowiz co-led the investment through its Intella X blockchain platform — investing $1.5 million — alongside US blockchain outfit Aptos. Neowiz and Aptos signed a strategic partnership in August 2023 to collaborate across their gaming activities.

Other investors included Nine Chronicles developer Planetarium and VC Crit Ventures. Both are based in South Korea, plus busy degen Spartan Group and quant Presto Labs, both of which are based in Singapore.

Supervillain is working on multiple games including Project ARK and Supervillain: Idle RPG. The latter’s first feature is now live via the Sidekick Fusion NFT mini-gacha-game which is running on Aptos. It will also be working with Intella X to make games using the Early Retired Cats Club NFT collection, which originally launched in the Polygon blockchain.

Podcast

• It’s Wednesday so that means another episode of Blockchain Gaming World is live. In episode 170, I spoke to Mike O’Connor, the CEO of developer Mr Kite, which is working on Today (aka Today The Game).

Having known Mike for some time, it’s been interesting to see how the reaction to what is a highly stylistic game involving blockchain, generative AI and UGC has changed over the months. But given that many games are now touting their AI smarts, a key question is how does Today differentiate itself?

Other topics discussed include Today’s recent $5 million seed round, why it’s good to have an over-subscribed funding round, but why you don’t want to be too over-subscribed.

Ragnarok Ronin Sold Out news

• Another NFT drop on Ronin has sold out in seconds. This time it was Ragnarok: Monster World’s Nyang Kit sale, which sold 250,000 kits priced at 1 RON, giving a total value of around $800,000.

Technically, the sale was split with bundles priced from 1 RON for one kit up to those priced at 1,000 RON for 1,000 kits. Each kit contains one Nyangvine and three Ragmon NFT tickets, plus additional bonuses for the larger packs.

A monster collection game with tower defence gameplay, Ragnarok: Monster World is prepping for its closed beta, with the initial release of the PVE mode expected in the coming months. Future modes include PVP, guild war and eventually land NFT gameplay.

More Mojo

• Mystic Moose has announced its third game within the Planet Mojo universe. Prophecy of The Ancients (working title) will be a squad-based action RPG developed using Unreal Engine 5, joining autochess battler Mojo Melee and endless runner GoGo Mojo.

The news comes alongside the launch of the new season for Mojo Melee called Pride of the Past, which introduces the King Kalahar character. The new Planet Mojo website is also now live, offering a week-long 50% discount for in-game gems and the battlepass if you use the MOJO token that was recently launched on Polygon.