When you eventually work out why, being wrong is much better than being right (without insight).
That’s the point of making a lot of small, failed bets. With skin in the game, you can understand the edge cases, get a feel for how things go awry in surprising ways — the space 'twixt cup and lip so to speak. Take that knowledge, rinse, repeat and improve.
Basically it all boils down to the Monty Hall problem.
Of course, it was just a TV game show played for laughs; one that also happened to be one of the most powerful counter-intuitive psychological constructs ever.
Its twist is you make an initial decision you subconsciously know is trivial but to which you get anchored nevertheless. You then receive new information that appears significant — and it is — but not exactly in the way in which it’s presented.
The twist is you have to have the confidence that even though you’re not confident in the veracity of the new information, it is nevertheless new information and valuable for that reason.
And I think that’s why the hardest financial problem is portfolio allocation.
On one extreme, you go full tracker. There’s no insight. No wrong or right. You just buy the market and let it do its laissez faire best (or worst) at no additional cost. But where’s the fun in that? Or you go active, with a high probability of blowing up, ironically because you don’t allocate enough into your winners.
Granted the issue in crypto is every token’s ramp up is explosive, almost as explosive as when its bubble pops. But the advantage we have compared to Monty Hall is that — taking a step back — it’s pretty clear ahead of time what’s a goat and what’s a car.
And every day we also get new information even if it’s that the winners are falling slower than the losers. But that’s doors being opened and goats revealed.
All you have to do is have faith that this is improving the decisions you’re making. One day at a time. Get it wrong to get it right tomorrow.
Product news
The Sandbox has partnered with PFP NFT collection World of Women to launch the WoW Foundation. The goal of the foundation is to “bring more women and diversity of thought into the NFT and metaverse space”. The Sandbox has also funded the foundation with a $25 million grant.
In addition, The Sandbox is releasing 10,000 World of Women 3D interoperable avatars; will build a museum for the foundation to showcase art; launch a university providing free online lessons; and an academy to act as an incubation and mentoring space.
Building on its reputation as a fully compliant blockchain service for gaming, Forte has announced a strategic partnership with Aleo. Aleo uses zero-knowledge proof cryptography to run its own Layer-1 scaling solution, which is privacy-focused.
Aleo recently raised a $200 million Series B round to build out its vision of providing a full pipeline from development tools through to blockchain deployment. Apparently Forte has already been using the tech so this deal looks like it will be now fully integrating it within its platform.
Vorti Gaming has partnered with developer Gold Town Games and producer CS Games to launch P2E mobile game Cricket Star Manager. The game will have its own cryptocurrency as well as player and stadium NFTs. It will obviously focus in the Indian market.
Gold Town Games is a publicly-owned Swedish mobile game developer, best known for its ice hockey management game. Wayne Gretzky is also a shareholder.
I’m still keeping a close eye on the metrics from CyBall, which has now been live for a couple of weeks. Investor guild Blackpool is reporting that the game has “+17,000 signups, +7,000 daily active players, 420,000 PvP matches and a 7 day NFT trading volume of $1.5 million”.
Unsurprisingly a lot of this activity comes from guilds. YGG has onboarded (almost) 1,000 scholars, while Merit Circle is up to 700 scholars. Avocado DAO, GuildFi and Good Games Guild are also supporting it.
The game’s utility CBT token — which runs on the BNB blockchain — has just gone live too and it’s already done $20 million trading volume on Pancakeswap. The governance CYB token is not yet live.
Funding news
US developer Studio 369 has raised $15 million in a private token and NFT round for its forthcoming open world mech shooter Metalcore. Bitkraft and Delphi led the round, while Immutable, Animoca and Sanctor Capital participated as did many guilds including YGG, Merit Circle, Perion, Avocado and BreederDAO. NFTs sold included land, mechas and pilots.
Currently 45 people strong, Studio 369 is an Unreal specialist and its founders previously worked on games such as MechWarrior, Fortnite and The Walking Dead.